To Win, You Should Ditch the Better Team
Statistically, the average bettor will bet favorites. That is a major mistake, and here’s why.
First, the average bettor will overstate the comparative strength of the league’s better players and teams. What pro handicappers understand is that there is actually tremendous parity in the league, with not that much difference between the best player in a position and the worst.
When a team of slightly worse players is more inspired than a group of slightly superior players an absolutely upset is possible. Most certainly, it’s potential for the”inferior” team to cover the point spread.
Secondly, the point spread tends to nullify any evident scrimmage edge (skill or power advantage) a group has over its competitor. In the 1999 and 2000 seasons, for instance, there were 167 matches where the point spread was seven points or more (games where one team’s advantage over the following was perceived to become sizable). While the underdog won only 36 of those games outright (21.6 percent), the underdog covered the point spread in 83 of those matches (while tying it in six): a success rate of 51.6 percent.
Third, by betting an underdog, you’ve got an important part of game plan in your side. NFL teams do their very best to win a match. Therefore, in the last couple of minutes of a match, a team that is leading infrequently takes much risk to score more points. Instead, it concentrates on hanging on to its lead. The team that’s losing, on the other hand, usually tries to score until the bitter end. If a bettor has obtained a favorite that is beforehand but not covering with five minutes or not to proceed, that bettor is in trouble.
In 20 years of handicapping the NFL, I’ve yet to stumble upon a long-term winning bettor who doesn’t bet mostly underdogs.
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